Factors contributing to the decline in the number of heavy goods vehicles involved in injury accidents in Norway from 2007 to 2020
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55329/doiy5780Keywords:
accidents, contributing factor, decline, heavy goods vehicleAbstract
There has been a large decline in the number of police reported injury accidents on public roads in Norway after 2007. The decline has been particularly large for accidents involving heavy goods vehicles. From 2007 to 2020, the number of heavy goods vehicles involved in injury accidents declined by 68%. The total number of injury accidents declined by 56%. The study presented in this paper aimed to identify factors explaining the decline from 2007 to 2020 in the number of heavy goods vehicles involved in injury accidents in Norway. This is done by reconstructing annual changes in factors known to influence the number of accidents and estimating the potential impacts of changes in these factors. The factors identified can only be regarded as potential causes, as the study design does not permit causal inferences. In total, 14 factors were identified. For 12 factors numerical estimates of the contributions to the declining trend were developed. The combined contribution of all factors accounted for 32.6%–37.5% of the decline in the number of heavy vehicles involved in injury accidents. More than 60% of the decline is not accounted for and must have been caused by factors not included in this study.
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Author Biographies
Rune Elvik, Institute of Transport Economics, Norway
Rune Elvik has been a road safety researcher at the Institute of Transport Economics since 1980. His main areas of research have been evaluation studies, meta-analysis and cost-benefit analysis. Rune Elvik served as editor-in-chief (together with Karl Kim) of Accident Analysis and Prevention from 2005 to 2013. He has participated in many European projects and contributed to the Highway Safety Manual. He has published more than 150 papers in scientific journals.
CRediT contribution: Conceptualisation, Data curation, Formal analysis, Methodology, Writing—original draft, Writing—review & editing.
Tor-Olav Nævestad, Institute of Transport Economics, Norway
Sociologist and PhD Tor-Olav Nævestad heads the research group ‘Safety and Resilience’ at the Institute of Transport Economics in Oslo, Norway. Nævestad has been working on several projects related to safety culture, safety management and regulation among companies and authorities in the transport sector and in high-risk sectors. One of the key themes in his research has been to develop an understanding of how the safety culture concept can be applied to private and professional road users, and how this understanding can be used to develop measures aiming to improve road safety. Nævestad also conducts research on resilience and disaster risk management.
CRediT contribution: Conceptualisation, Data curation, Funding acquisition, Methodology, Project administration, Supervision, Writing—review & editing.
Fridulv Sagberg, Institute of Transport Economics, Norway
Fridulv Sagberg worked as a research psychologist at the Institute of Transport Economics from 1992 until his retirement in 2022. His research spanned a wide range of topics. It included evaluations of driver and motorcycle training, medical examinations of older drivers, driver health state and accident involvement, the design of roads to fit human capabilities and in-depth studies of accidents.
CRediT contribution: Data curation, Software, Writing—review & editing.
Ingeborg Storesund Hesjevoll, Institute of Transport Economics, Norway
Ingeborg Storesund Hesjevoll is a psychologist who joined the Institute of Transport Economics in 2015. She worked on the EU-project SafetyCube and has contributed to the Handbook of Road Safety Measures. She has also analysed data from in-depth studies of fatal accidents in Norway. Her interests include summarizing knowledge by means of meta-analysis and the design of surveys. Her most recent publications deal with passing bays at junctions and the share of fatal accidents that comply with the system limits of Vision Zero, e.g. occur within legal speeds, involve sober users, etc.
CRediT contribution: Formal analysis, Writing—review & editing.
Inger Beate Hovi, Institute of Transport Economics, Norway
Inger Beate Hovi is Chief Research Economist for industry and freight at the Institute of Transport Economics in Oslo, Norway. Her research experience includes among others freight transport modelling and analysis, commodity flow analyses, freight transport forecasting and analyses of competition in the Norwegian freight transport market.
CRediT contribution: Conceptualisation, Data curation, Resources, Writing—review & editing.
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Copyright (c) 2022 Rune Elvik, Tor-Olav Nævestad, Fridulv Sagberg, Ingeborg Storesund Hesjevoll, Inger Beate Hovi
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