Geospatial analysis of mortality risk from road traffic crashes in Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria




Abuja, cluster analysis, GIS, hotspot, road traffic injury, trauma registry


The objective of the study was to present a novel analytical approach using Nigerian trauma registry data to determine risks and of road traffic crash-related mortality for patients treated at National Trauma Centre, Abuja. Patient characteristics were compared between those who died at the hospital (n = 118) and those who survived (n = 2018). Multiple logistic regression and cluster analyses were used to identify risks of mortality and of high mortality and injury rates. The patient’s status as pedestrian (p < .0001), and whether the crash occurred on an expressway or transition zone between expressways and local roads (p = 0.0045) were significantly associated with mortality. Cluster analysis further isolated significant of mortality rate (Moran’s I = 0.31), pedestrian injury rate (Moran’s I = 0.34), and expressway/transition zone injury rate (Moran’s I = 0.18). For patients who survived to hospitalization at National Hospital Abuja, pedestrians involved in a crash and those whose crashes occurred on expressways/transition zones were at higher risk of mortality. High mortality and pedestrian and expressway/transition zone injury rates isolated to five contiguous administrative wards in Abuja. These analysis methods can be applied to determine risks and hotspots of crashes, injuries, and mortality in various settings.


Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

Benjamin D. Holmes, Medical College of Wisconsin, the United States of America

Benjamin D. Holmes is an Assistant Professor of Physical Medicine & Rehabilitation at Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, USA. He also provides clinical care within the Mayo Clinic Spine Center. He received his BA in Philosophy from Brigham Young University, his Doctor of Chiropractic (DC) degree from University of Western States, and his PhD degree from Medical College of Wisconsin. His research interests lie in global health and in using mixed methods analytical techniques to study road traffic trauma and spinal injuries and pain disorders.

CRediT contribution: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Writing—original draft, Writing—review & editing.

Yuhong Zhou, Medical College of Wisconsin, the United States of America

Yuhong Zhou is a Research Scientist in the Institute for Health & Equity at Medical College of Wisconsin in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA. Her research interests lie at the intersection of geographic information science (GISc), geography, planning and public health. She currently focuses on three lines of research: social, spatial/environmental, and behavioral determinants of health outcomes and disparities, physical access to health-related facilities (such as pharmacy and hospital) and built-environment elements (such as parks and green space), and the effect of institutional racism on cancer outcomes.

CRediT contribution: Formal analysis, Software, Writing—review & editing.

Ruta Brazauskas, Medical College of Wisconsin, the United States of America

Ruta Brazauskas is an Associate Professor of Biostatistics at Medical College of Wisconsin and a biostatistician for the NIH-funded Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) and Primary Immune Deficiency Treatment Consortium (PIDTC). Her research interests include survival analysis, hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, and clinical trials. She is also involved in patient care and outcomes research and collaborates with investigators working in public and community health. Dr. Brazauskas received several awards for excellence in teaching biostatistics.

CRediT contribution: Methodology, Formal analysis, Writing—review & editing.

Kirsten M. Beyer, Medical College of Wisconsin, the United States of America

Kirsten M. Beyer is a Professor within the Division of Epidemiology at Medical College of Wisconsin and Director of the PhD Program in Public & Community Health, as well as Co-Director of the Global Health Pathway and GEO Shared Resource. Her work focuses on the intersection of health, place, and social justice. Her research passion is to identify environmental and systematic causes of health disparities, and to apply a translational research framework, including community engaged research, to move research findings into program and policy interventions to close the gaps. While her interest in social justice has early roots, her specialization in geography and public health stems from her undergraduate focus on international studies, her work in the nonprofit sector after college, and her graduate work in global health, geospatial analysis, and health disparities.

CRediT contribution: Methodology, Formal analysis, Writing—review & editing.

Emmanuel A. Ameh, National Hospital Abuja, Nigeria

Emmanuel A. Ameh is a Professor of Paediatric Surgery and Consultant Paediatric Surgeon at National Hospital Abuja, Nigeria. He is actively involved in educational and training program development with various surgical associations throughout sub Saharan Africa. He has been actively involved in developing sustainable trauma registry in Nigeria. He was a commissioner on the Lancet Commission for Global Surgery and led the recently concluded National Surgical, Obstetrics, Anaesthesia and Nursing Plan for Nigeria. He also serves on the Global Initiative for Children’s Surgery core organization committee.

CRediT contribution: Conceptualization, Resources, Writing—review & editing.

Oluwole O. Olaomi, National Hospital Abuja, Nigeria

Oluwole O. Olaomi is Associate Professor of Surgery at the Federal University of Health Sciences, Otukpo, Benue State, Nigeria, and Chief Consultant Surgeon and Head of the National Trauma Centre at National Hospital Abuja. He is involved in surgical education and training programs, including the Trauma Fellowship in the West African sub-region. His research interests include trauma and health technology assessment.

CRediT contribution: Conceptualization, Data curation, Resources.

Laura D. Cassidy, Medical College of Wisconsin, the United States of America

Laura D. Cassidy is a Professor and Director of Epidemiology at Medical College of Wisconsin. She is also the Research Director for the college’s Institute for Health & Equity and Associate Dean of Global Health. Her research experience and interests are extensive and diverse and include pediatric trauma, bladder cancer screening, community health department evaluation, AIDS education training, radiation exposure in Russian workers, clinical outcomes, and registry development.

CRediT contribution: Conceptualization, Methodology, Resources, Supervision, Writing—review & editing.


Ahmadi, M., A. Valinejadi, A. Goodarzi, A. Safari, M. Hemmat, H. A. Majdabadi, A. Mohammadi (2017), ‘Geographic information system (GIS) capabilities in traffic accident information management: a qualitative approach’, Electronic Physician, 9(6). DOI:

Aluko, O. O. (2018), ‘Road traffic accident characteristics in Nigeria: A six years review’, Global Scientific Journals, 6(5), 111–116.

Atubi, A., K. Gbadamosi (2015), ‘Global positioning and socio-economic impact of road traffic accidents in Nigeria: Matters arising’, American International Journal of Contemporary Research, 5(5).

Bayomi, A., M. Shawky, A. Osama (2022), ‘Investigating Pedestrian Safety-Related Behavior in Developing Countries: Egypt as a Case Study’, Traffic Safety Research, 3, 000016. DOI:

Brennan, I., J. Shepherd (2012), ‘Integrating emergency department and police data to locate and prevent violence: The Cardiff model’, Geography & Public Safety, 3(2), 3–5.

Buor, D. (2018), ‘Examining patterns of injury occurrence in rural and urban settings in sub-Saharan Africa: A critical review of the literature’, Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 5(12). DOI:

Cassidy, L. D., O. Olaomi, A. Ertl, E. A. Ameh (2016), ‘Collaborative Development and Results of a Nigerian Trauma Registry’, Journal of Registry Management, 43(1), 23–28.

CDC (2013), ‘CDC Global Health - Nigeria’, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,, accessed 2023-06-29.

DESA (2017), ‘World Population Prospects 2017’, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.

FRSC (2018), ‘Publications’, Federal Road Safety Corps, Federal Public of Nigeria,, accessed 2023-06-25.

Harper, S. (2014), ‘Economic and social implications of aging societies’, Science, 346, 587–591. DOI:

Holmes, B. D. (2019), ‘Road traffic crashes in Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria: Explanatory factors in statistical, geospatial, and qualitative analyses. The Medical College of Wisconsin’, PhD thesis, The Medical College of Wisconsin.

Holmes, B. D., K. Haglund, E. A. Ameh, O. O. Olaomi, U. Uthman, L. D. Cassidy (2020), ‘Understanding Etiologies of Road Traffiffic Crashes, Injuries, and Death for Patients at National Hospital Abuja: A Qualitative Content Analysis Using Haddon’s Matrix’, The Qualitative Report, 25(4). DOI:

INEC (2023), ‘Independent Electoral Commission’,, accessed 2023-06-29.

Kazeem, Y. (2015), ‘In 35 years, Nigeria could be the automotive capital of Africa’,, accessed 2023-06-29.

Korter, G. O., O. E. Olubusoye, M. A. Salisu (2013), ‘Spatio-temporal analysis of characteristics and causes of road traffic crashes in Oyo state of Nigeria’, Nigerian Health Journal, 13(4), 166–181. DOI:

Labinjo, M., C. Juillard, O. C. Kobusingye, A. A. Hyder (2009), ‘The burden of road traffic injuries in Nigeria: results of a population-based survey’, Injury Prevention, 15(3), 157–162. DOI:

Marquez, P. V., J. L. Farrington (2013), ‘The Challenge of Non-Communicable Diseases and Road Traffic Injuries in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Overview’, World Bank.

Mathers, C. D., D. Loncar (2006), ‘Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030’, PLOS Medicine, 3(11), e442. DOI:

NBS (2017), ‘Road Transport Data’, National Bureau of Statistics,, accessed 2023-06-19.

Onyemaechi, N. O. C., U. R. Ofoma (2016), ‘The public health threat of road traffic accidents in Nigeria: A call to action’, Annals of Medical and Health Sciences Research, 6(4), 199–204. DOI:

PwC (2016), ‘Africa’s Next Automotive Hub’, PwC Nigeria Automotive Industry.

Solagberu, B. A., R. A. Balogun, I. A. Mustafa, N. A. Ibrahim, M. A. Oludara, A. O. Ajani, O. E. Idowu, R. I. Osuoji (2015), ‘Pedestrian injuries in the most densely populated city in Nigeria—an epidemic calling for control’, Traffic Injury Prevention, 16(2), 184–189. DOI:

Solagberu, B. A., C. K. P. Ofoegbu, L. O. Abdur- Rahman, A. O. Adekanye, U. S. Udoffa, J. Taiwo (2009), ‘Pre-hospital care in Nigeria: a country without emergency medical services’, Nigerian Journal of Clinical Practice, 12(1), 29–33.

Stevens, F. R., A. E. Gaughan, C. Linard, A. J. Tatem (2015), ‘Disaggregating census data for population mapping using random forests with remotely-sensed and ancillary data’, PLOS ONE, 10(2). DOI:

Sundet, M., J. Grudziak, A. Charles, L. Banza, C. Varela, S. Young (2018), ‘Paediatric road traffic injuries in Lilongwe, Malawi: an analysis of 4776 consecutive cases’, Tropical Doctor, 48(4), 316–322. DOI:

Sydhagen, K., P. Cunningham (2007), ‘Human Resource Development in Sub-Saharan Africa’, Human Resource Development International, 10(2), 121–135. DOI:

Whitaker, J., N. O’Donohoe, M. Denning, D. Poenaru, E. Guadagno, A. J. Leather, J. I. Davies (2021), ‘Assessing trauma care systems in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review and evidence synthesis mapping the three delays framework to injury health system assessments’, BMJ Global Health, 6(5), e004324. DOI:

WHO (2015), ‘Health in 2015: from MDGs, Millennium Development Goals to SDGs, Sustainable Development Goals’, World Health Organization. DOI:

WHO (2018), ‘Global status report on road safety 2018’, World Health Organization.

WorldPop (2018), ‘Nigeria 100m Population’,, accessed 2023-06-25.

Yannis, G., D. Nikolaou, A. Laiou, Y. A. Stürmer, I. Buttler, D. Jankowska-Karpa (2020), ‘Vulnerable road users: Cross-cultural perspectives on performance and attitudes’, IATSS Research, 44(3), 220–229. DOI:




How to Cite

Holmes, B., Zhou, Y., Brazauskas, R., Beyer, K. M., Ameh, E., Olaomi, O., & Cassidy, L. (2023). Geospatial analysis of mortality risk from road traffic crashes in Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria. Traffic Safety Research, 4, 000032.