Analysing bike crash reasons and predicting occurrence in Izmir city: insights from a logit regression model

Elia Odabasi; Mohammed Hajouj; Yalçın Alver

doi:10.55329/gxzw7901

Authors

Elia Odabaşı Ege University, Türkiye https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0763-5810
Mohammed Hajouj Hasselt University, Belgium https://orcid.org/0009-0001-9770-5212
Yalçın Alver Ege University, Türkiye

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55329/gxzw7901

Keywords:

bike crash, cyclist safety, logistic regression, vulnerable road users (VRU), Western Asia, low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)

Abstract

This study aims to analyse the occurrence and causes of bicycle crashes in Izmir, Turkey, with a focus on socio-demographic factors, cycling behaviours, and urban infrastructure. It seeks to identify key determinants of crash probability and reasons using regression models. Data were collected via face-to-face surveys from 1,796 cyclists across Izmir. 25% of surveyed cyclists reported having experienced a bicycle crash. Two statistical models were applied: a binary logistic regression to predict the probability of crash occurrence and a multinomial logit model to determine crash causes. Spatial data were also analysed to identify high-risk urban areas using GIS tools. The binary logistic model showed that higher age, education, income, and use of safety equipment reduced the likelihood of a crash. The multinomial logit model revealed that cyclist distraction, poor road infrastructure, and the sudden appearance of vehicles and pedestrians were the main crash causes. Younger cyclists were more vulnerable to sudden appearances. Spatial analysis identified Konak as the highest risk area, with Bornova and Karsiyaka also showing significant crash densities. Findings highlight the critical role of dedicated cycling infrastructure, especially in urban centres with mixed traffic. Policymakers should prioritize expanding bike lanes, improve road conditions, and promote cyclist education, particularly among youth and low-income populations.

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Author Biographies

Elia Odabaşı, Ege University, Türkiye

Elia Odabaşı graduated from the Department of City and Regional Planning at Dokuz Eylül University in 2013. Following her bachelor's degree, she lived in the United Kingdom for professional and academic development. She then completed her master's degree in transportation planning at Ege University in 2018, focusing her research on public transport accessibility. She received her Ph.D. in transportation planning from Ege University in 2024. During her doctoral studies, she spent seven months as a visiting researcher at Uppsala University in Sweden. Her research interests focus on sustainable transportation systems, with a particular expertise in bike-sharing systems.

CRediT contribution: Conceptualization, Data curation, Methodology, Writing – original draft.

Mohammed Hajouj, Hasselt University, Belgium

Mohammed Hajouj is a PhD candidate at the Transportation Research Institute (IMOB), Hasselt University, Belgium. His research interests include activity-based travel demand modelling, multimodal transportation systems, and travel behaviour analysis. His current research focuses on integrating multimodal transport networks into activity-based models.

CRediT contribution: Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Methodology, Writing – original draft.

Yalçın Alver, Ege University, Türkiye

Yalçın Alver is currently a Professor in the Department of Civil Engineering at the Faculty of Engineering, Ege University, where he has served as a faculty member since 2009. He holds a master’s degree in Construction Management from Ege University and a Ph.D. in Transportation Engineering from Kumamoto University, Japan. He has undertaken research as a visiting scholar at both Kumamoto University and Berlin Technical University, Germany. Between 2019 and 2021, he held the position of Visiting Professor at the University of Central Florida, USA. Prof. Dr. Alver's research interests encompass transportation planning and traffic engineering, with a recent emphasis on public transportation planning and traffic safety. He has successfully completed four projects funded by TÜBİTAK (The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey) and nine additional nationally-funded research initiatives. His ongoing research focuses on traffic safety and transportation planning, and his findings have been published in prestigious journals, including Accident Analysis & Prevention and Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour. Additionally, he serves as a consultant to various government agencies and private sector companies.

CRediT contribution: Conceptualization, Methodology, Supervision, Writing – review & editing.

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